World Cup 2026: The Final-Day Group Math, Group by Group

48 teams, 12 groups: the top two from each plus the eight best third-placed sides make the new Round of 32

Finishing third is no longer fatal — four of the 12 third-placed teams go home, eight survive

Third-place ranking is settled by points, then goal difference, goals scored, fair-play score, and FIFA ranking

Group D comes down to Australia vs Paraguay for second behind the USA

A team can win its final game and still be eliminated if other groups' thirds outscore it